Year: 2040
City need: Safe, affordable drinking water while the population grows
Signals used: Water Scarcity Drives Great Lakes In-Migration (Aug 3) · Expanding Hypoxia Reshapes Freshwater Habitats (Aug 26) · Sewage Overflows Impact Public Health Safety (Aug 20) · Maritime Disruptions Accelerate Global Biological Invasions (Aug 20) · Fungal Bioremediation Targets Aquatic Pollutants (Aug 17)
Buffalo’s population has grown for twelve straight years. Many newcomers come from drought-stressed metros in the Southwest and from abroad, drawn by the Great Lakes’ water supply. The irony is that Lake Erie is becoming less predictable as a source. Warmer surface water has expanded low-oxygen dead zones. Strong winds now regularly push cold, chemically altered bottom water toward the city’s intake. On those days, the Colonel Francis G. Ward Pumping Station has to change its treatment process quickly, at significant cost. Invasive species carried in by rerouted shipping have added new maintenance problems for intake pipes.
In response, the city and the Buffalo Water Board adopted a “water budget” in 2037. New developments pay capacity fees based on how much water they will use and how much stormwater they will send into the sewers. Large projects must include green infrastructure that keeps stormwater out of the combined sewer system. That system still overflows into the Buffalo River and the Outer Harbor after heavy storms, and those overflows now close beaches for 30 to 40 days each summer. Real-time sensors in the lake give treatment operators about six hours’ warning before an upwelling event. A pilot project near the Outer Harbor uses fungal filters to capture pollutants from storm runoff.
The approach works, but it has costs. Water and sewer bills have risen faster than incomes in Black Rock, Riverside, and the West Side, where many longtime residents live on fixed incomes. Some residents see the capacity fees as a way to make newcomers pay for growth. Others see them as a barrier to the affordable housing the city needs. The city promotes itself as a water-secure place to live. Its main policy challenge is keeping water service affordable for existing residents as it grows.
